Your Learning Goals for This Lesson
By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:
- Calculate probability using
- Read probability from tables, bar charts, and circle graphs
- Apply the complement rule
- Apply the addition rule for compound events
Probability Connects to Everyday Language
- "Fifty-fifty" →
- "Almost certain" →
close to - "Impossible" →
Probability is a number from 0 to 1 (inclusive).
On the SAT, probabilities appear as fractions, decimals, or percents.
Probability Is a Ratio: Favorable Over Total
: impossible : certain- Always:
Example: Drawing from a Bag
A bag has 4 red, 3 blue, and 5 green marbles. One is drawn at random.
What is
- Favorable: 3 blue marbles
- Total:
marbles
Reading Probability from Two-Way Tables
Key: "From what group am I selecting?" — that group's total is your denominator.
Table Example: Finding P of Math
| Math | Science | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 9 | 45 | 35 | 80 |
| Grade 10 | 50 | 70 | 120 |
| Total | 95 | 105 | 200 |
Selected from all 200:
Quick Check: Find P of Grade 9
Same table, selected from all 200:
| Math | Science | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 9 | 45 | 35 | 80 |
| Grade 10 | 50 | 70 | 120 |
| Total | 95 | 105 | 200 |
Find
The Complement Rule: Finding P(not A)
Use when
Example: Die roll.
The Addition Rule for Overlapping Events
Subtract the overlap — it gets counted twice otherwise.
Addition Rule: Mutually Exclusive Events
Cannot happen simultaneously →
Example: Die.
Addition Rule Applied: Overlapping Events
From the survey table (200 students):
Quick Check: Mutually Exclusive Events
Event A and Event B are mutually exclusive.
What is
Think before advancing…
SAT Strategy: Probability from Tables
For every SAT probability question from a table:
- Identify the group you are selecting from (denominator)
- Find the condition count in the table (numerator)
- Form the ratio and simplify
- Check: is the answer between 0 and 1?
The hardest part is identifying the correct denominator.
SAT-Style Problem 1: Remote Work Survey
Survey of 150 workers:
| Remote | Office | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manager | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| Staff | 40 | 60 | 100 |
| Total | 70 | 80 | 150 |
Selected at random:
SAT-Style Problem 2: Using the Complement
Same table, selected at random:
Direct:
Complement:
Both give
Your Turn: SAT Probability Practice
250 students: Smartphone(140) / Laptop(110). Grade 11 = 100, Grade 12 = 150. Grade 11 Laptop = 40.
? ? ?
Pause and work each before advancing.
Check Your Work: Practice Solutions
1.
2.
3.
Key Takeaways: Basic Probability Rules
- ✓
- ✓ Tables: denominator = the group selected from
- ✓ Complement:
- ✓ Addition: subtract the overlap
Wrong denominator is the #1 SAT trap
Forgetting to subtract overlap → answer too large
What You Will Learn Next
Next lesson: Conditional Probability
You will learn:
: the probability of given that has occurred- How "given that" changes the denominator
- Why
in general
Conditional probability uses the same tables — just a different denominator.
Click to begin the narrated lesson
Basic probability of single events